FxWirePro: Currency Weekly Outlook

US Dollar index was trading in narrow range previous week after hitting high of 98.45.US-China trade talks progress is slightly positive and markets eye further development in the deal. The index hits a low of 97.90 and is currently trading around 97.93.

On the data front, US retail sales came better than expected and rose 0.3% compared to -0.3% the previous month. CPI advanced 0.4% for the month of Oct, the highest monthly gain since Mar and Core inflation jumped slightly to 0.2%. With no major economic data, this week Fed minutes and European PMIs to be watched.

The Canadian dollar will be the currency to be watched this week on the release of major economic data such as manufacturing sales, CPI and retail sales.

The yellow metals have recovered more than $20 from a 3-month low of $1448. Any break beyond $1480 confirms slight bullishness.

US 10-year yield is trading slightly lower after hitting 2-1/2 month high at 1.97%. The spread between US 10-year and 2-year has widened to 21 bps.

Weekly Technical:

EURUSD:

Major trend reversal level- 1.1178

Near term support- 1.0989/1.0935

Near term resistance – 1.110/1.1180

USDJPY:

Major trend reversal level- 109.50

Near term support- 107.80/106.40

Near term resistance – 109.50/110.60

USDCHF

Major trend reversal level- 1.0030

Near term support- 0.9840/0.97700

Near term resistance – 1.0030/10060

USDCAD 

Major trend reversal level- 1.3385

Near term support- 1.3180/1.310

Near term resistance – 1.3300/1.3385

Gold

Major trend reversal level- $1456

Near term support- $1445/$1415

Near term resistance – $1480/$1500

WTI Crude

Major trend reversal level- $58

Near term support- $55/$52.70

Near term resistance – $58/$60.50

Major Economic events for the week

CAD Manufacturing sales- Tuesday (1:30 GMT)

USD Building permits - Tuesday (1:30 GMT)

CAD CPI m/m - Wed  (1:30 GMT)

USD FOMC Meeting Minutes  - Wed (7:00 PM GMT)

USD Philly Fed manufacturing Index - Thu (1:30 PM GMT)

EUR German Flash manufacturing PMI -Fri (8:30 PM GMT)

CAD Core Retail sales m/m- Fri (1:30 PM GMT)