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Ahead of today’s US EIAs crude oil inventory check, from last three-four trading sessions, the crude oil market reaction seems to be relatively muted, and understandably so.
Crude oil prices extended solid gains as investors looked ahead to the Energy Department's weekly supply report at 14:30 GMT.
WTI crude price was up at $45.90 a barrel, up 86 cents, while Brent rose 58 cents to $48.10.
Though last week's US decline, which worked out to 1.91 Mb/d, was noteworthy, it needs to be kept in perspective.
Over the last four weeks - the month of June - US crude/product stocks drew by a total of 7.7 Mb, or 280 kb/d. In Japan, also over the last four weeks, crude/product stocks fell by 4.4 Mb, or 160 kb/d.
That means for two of the three main OECD regions, overall stocks drew by a relatively modest 12.1 Mb in June, or 430 kb/d (preliminary June data for Europe will be released next Tuesday). In order to see more of a price reaction, the market needs to see sizeable draws for another two or three weeks in a row; then it will become more convinced that a short-term trend is developing.
However, if that happens, there will only be a month of peak summer demand left - August. A week ago, we downgraded our price forecast.
Perhaps the most bearish change to our fundamental outlook was not just weaker balances, but that the forecast draws are expected to be merely seasonal - not the first steps in a continuous rebalancing process. The expected rebalancing has been extended beyond 2018.
Options Trade Strategy:
Stay long the October 2017 WTI and Brent call spreads (strikes of $45.13-52.5 for WTI and $48-53/bbl for Brent).
The base case assumption is that the stock draws that have proved so elusive in H1’17 will accelerate in the coming months.
However, given the still limited progress towards this objective, we retain an options strategy that limits downside exposure to the initial premium of 90¢/bbl.
Marked to market on 7 July at $1.21/bbl, for an unrealized gain of 31¢/bbl. Trade target is $3.00/bbl.
