2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Goldman Sachs Forecasts Fed Rate Hike as Inflation Risks Rise 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
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EUR risk short-lived: The recent tightening of the spread is essentially due to the political risk premium in Europe, which is currently supporting EUR vols. Our central scenario sees Marine Le Pen failing to win the French presidential election and a euro bounce accompanied by a deflating of the EUR volatility premium.
The G10 convergence trade: long EURAUD
The AUD has performed the most and the EUR the least against the USD since the start of the year: long EURAUD is a natural G10 convergence trade.
AUD strength is at risk, as the surge in metal prices may not be sustainable.
The EUR could take a breather if French pre-election uncertainty has passed its peak.
We like selling the EURAUD high vol risk premium conditionally on a bullish pay-off.
Trade a tactical bounce via a 2m zero cost ladder strikes 1.38/1.39/1.42.
Recommendation: Buy EURAUD 2m ladder strikes 1.38/1.39/1.42, zero cost (indicative offer, spot ref: 1.3778) Trade risks: unlimited above 1.43.
The ladder structure is a standard call spread strikes 1.38/1.39 fully financed by a call strike 1.42. Investors, therefore, face unlimited risk if EURAUD trades above 1.43 at the 2m expiry and may have to delta-hedge the position.
