The implied volatilities of ATM contracts are just shy above 7% for next 3 months tenors, whereas risk reversals have been bearish neutral.
So if anyone believes it can still be possible to pull out returns from this dubious scene from this pair, even though exhausted bulls who think long lasting non-stop streak of bull run to take halt at this point. Yes, that's quite achievable from iron butterfly strategy.
At Spot ref: 1.0899, diagonal iron butterfly strategy (EUR/CHF) can be executed as shown below,
Long 2M (1%) OTM -0.27 delta put & 2W Short ATM put with positive theta or closer zero + 2W Short ATM Call with positive theta or at zero& Long 2M (1%) OTM 0.27 delta call.
A delta neutral trading strategy in this case involves the buying of a theoretically underpriced option while taking an opposite position in EURCHF options.
Well, thereby, a common question pops up after this explanation, "How do I know if an option is theoretically underpriced?" I prefer to use Option Greeks platform that provides this information.
Comparing reasonable delta contents, ATM IVs and option premiums with net present values of such premiums, will give you the theoretical price of an option.
In iron butterfly, there is high probability of deriving certain yields as it contains both bull call and bear put spreads, hence it would likely yield variant payoffs from classic butterfly spreads.
Alternatively, those who are aggressively dubious on bearish swings, debit put spread shall be used over Protective Put as the premiums on naked puts prove too costlier.
Bear Put Spread = Long 1M ATM -0.49 delta Put + Short 1W (1%) OTM Put with lower Strike Price with net delta should be at -0.40.
For a net debit bear put spread reduces the cost of hedge by the premium collected (on the shorts of OTM put) and keeps hedger to participate on upward moves but it comes at the expense of Partial hedge rather than a complete hedge.


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