• EUR/NZD slipped sharply lower on Wednesday as kiwi dollar rose after RBNZ signaled end to easing cycle as economy shows signs of recovery
• The RBNZ cut its cash rate 25bps to 2.25% but signalled the easing cycle may be over as the economy shows early recovery..
• The RBNZ now expects the cash rate at 2.20% in Q1 2026 and 2.65% in Q4 2027, lower than August’s forecast but signaling a hawkish tilt with little room for further easing.
• At a press conference, Hawkesby highlighted the policy shift, noting the projection “has a very slight downward tilt” but aligns with keeping the cash rate on hold through 2026.
• The central bank, which unexpectedly cut rates by 50bps in October, has eased a total of 325bps since August 2024.
• Immediate resistance is located at 2.0447(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 2.0676(23.6%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 2.0311 (38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 2.0137(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to buy on dips around 2.0340 with stop loss of 2.0250 and target price of 2.0430
