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EURGBP pared some of its gains after mixed German PMI data. Intraday bias remains bearish as long as resistance 0.8380 holds. It hits a high of 0.83270 and is currently trading around 0.8300.
Germany's Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for December 2024 fell to 42.5, lower than the expected 43.8 and down from 43.0 in November. A PMI below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is decreasing, showing ongoing problems like weak demand and fewer new orders. Meanwhile, the Services PMI improved to 51.0, signaling growth in that sector, which is a positive sign despite overall economic challenges. This difference suggests that while manufacturing is struggling, the services sector is holding up better. Overall, the sharp drop in the Manufacturing PMI reflects continued difficulties for German manufacturers as the year ends.
The Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI for December 2024 stayed at 45.2, the same as in November and slightly above the expected 45.0. This number indicates that the manufacturing sector is still contracting, but the rate of decline is stable. A PMI below 50 shows ongoing problems, including weak demand and fewer new orders, especially in major economies like Germany and France. While manufacturing struggles, the Services PMI rose to 51.4, indicating growth in that sector. Although the manufacturing reading suggests some stabilization, the economic outlook for the Eurozone is mixed, with manufacturing facing challenges while services improve.
Technical Analysis
The pair is currently trading below the 34- and 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
- Bearish Trend Confirmation: If the price stays below 0.8230, it will confirm an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8190/ 0.8150 is likely.
- Near-Term Resistance: Current resistance is around 0.8300. If it breaks above, we could see movement toward 0.8320/0.8340/0.8360/0.8380/0.845/0.8500. The bearish outlook would be invalidated only if the price goes above 0.8500.
Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)
- CCI (50): Bearish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Bearish
Trading Recommendation
It may be wise to sell on rallies around 0.8268-70, with a stop loss set at 0.8320 and a target price of 0.8160.
