EURGBP lost its shine on board-based Pound buying. Intraday bias remains bearish as long as the resistance 0.8650 holds. It hits an intraday high of 0.85767 and is currently trading around 0.85535.
The UK March 2025 CPI registered a year-on-year rise of 2.6%, below 2.8% in February, and a rise of 0.3% month-on-month. CPIH also rose by 3.4%, below last month, and owner occupiers' housing costs by 7.2%. Recreational and cultural, and motor fuel exerted downward pressures, offset by increased clothing prices. Core CPI fell marginally to 3.4%, and core CPIH fell to 4.2%. Goods inflation fell to 0.6% and services inflation slowed to 4.7%. These are a modest reversal of the inflationary pressures, but still at rates in front of the Bank of England's 2% target.
In March 2025, the UK labor market was still strong with a firm unemployment rate of 4.4% and a huge increase in employment of 206,000, and wage growth, though still strong, began to show some moderation, with average weekly earnings rising at 5.6% and non-bonus earnings at 5.0%; however, payroll employment fell unexpectedly by 78,000, which may reflect short-term volatility amidst otherwise firm labor conditions.
Technical Analysis
The pair is currently trading below the 34- and below 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8500 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8450/0.8378/0.8300 is likely.
Near-Term Resistance: The near-term resistance is around 0.86050. Any violation above will take the pair to 0.8660/0.8765/0.8800.
Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)
- CCI (50): Bullish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Bullish
Trading Recommendation
It is good to sell on rallies around 0.8600 with SL around 0.86675 for a TP of 0.8380.
