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The EUR/JPY showed a minor sell-off despite a strong Euro. It hit an intraday high of 161.26 and is currently trading around 159.62. The intraday outlook is bearish as long as the resistance 161.60 holds.
The ECB lowered important interest rates by 25 basis points, placing the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, and was expecting inflation to reach its 2% target in the medium term at 2.3% on average in 2025 and 1.9-2.0% in 2026-2027. At the same time, the ECB downgraded economic growth forecasts to 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 due to uncertainty of trade policy and poor investment. The ECB reiterated that the monetary policy is less tight but will be data-driven going forward, and market response will be cautious in the backdrop of wider economic and geopolitical issues.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is trading above the 34,55 EMA and 200-4H EMA in the 8-hour chart.
- Near-Term Resistance: Around 160 a breakout here could lead to targets at 160.25/161/161.50/162/163/163.60/164/165/166.65/167.
- Immediate Support: At 158.50– if breached, the pair could fall to 156.80/156/155.49/155/154.40.
Indicator Analysis 4-hour chart): - CCI (50): Bullish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Overall, the indicators suggest a mixed trend
Trading Recommendation:
It is good to sell on rallies around 160.78-80 with a stop loss at 161.60 for a TP of 156.
