Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.07555
Kijun-Sen- 1.07299
EURUSD pared some of its gains on mixed US CPI. The inflation for Jan came at 6.4% YOY, above the estimate of 6.2%. The monthly inflation rose 0.50% in Jan more than the expectation of 0.40%. Markets eye US retail sales and ECB President speech for further direction. It hits a low of 1.0700 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.07091.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb declined to 87.8% from 90.8% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield recovered sharply after mixed US CPI data. Any close above 3.75% targets $3.95%. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -86 basis points from -76% bpbs.
Technical:
The pair is trading below short-term 21 EMA above 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below 1.07000 confirms intraday bearishness; a dip to 1.0600/1.0350 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0780. The breach above will push the pair to 1.08000/1.08850.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0760-65 with SL around 1.0810 for a TP of 1.06000.
