Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.10188
Kijun-Sen- 1.09647
EURUSD pared most of its gains on board-based US dollar buying. The US dollar gained momentum in hopes of a 25 bpbs rate hike by the Fed. It hits a low of 1.09616 and is currently trading around 1.09832.
In Mar, retail sales fell by -1%, and core retail sales dropped by -0.80%.
Significant economic data for the Week
Apr 20th, 2023 US Initial jobless claims (12:30 pm GMT).
Philly Fed manufacturing (2:00 pm)
Existing Home Sales (2:00 pm)
Apr 21st, 2023 US Flash manufacturing PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in May increased to 80.90% from 71.2% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield gained in hopes of a 25 bpbs rate hike in the May 3rd meeting. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -59.7% from -108%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break above 1.1075 confirms intraday bullishness, a jump to 1.110/1.1165 is possible. The near-term support is around 1.103. The breach below targets 1.100/1.0930/1.0900/1.0830.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bullish
Directional movement index – Bullish
It is good to buy on dips around 1.0900 with SL around 1.0840 for a TP of 1.1035.
