FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

  Tenken-Sen- 1.10037

  Kijun-Sen- 1.10290

 EURUSD pared some of its gains after a minor pullback. Markets eye  US Fed and ECB monetary policy for further direction. The pair hits an intraday low of 1.09947 and currently trading around 1.0998.

US PCE YoY March cools down to 4.6% from 4.7% in Feb.  The core PCE surged by 0.30% in Mar, in line with the estimate

Major economic data

May 1st, 2023 US ISM manufacturing Index  (2:00 pm GMT).

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in May increased to 14.5% from 9.50% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains and lost more than 3.5% after weak US PCE data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -60% from -108%.

The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break above 1.1070 confirms intraday bullishness; a jump to 1.110/1.1165 is possible. The near-term support is around 1.0990. The breach below targets 1.0960/1.0930/1.0900.

 Indicator (4-hour chart)

  CCI –Neutral

  Directional movement index – neutral

It is good to buy on dips around 1.0990 with SL around 1.0950 for a TP of 1.1100.