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Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.07365
Kijun-Sen- 1.07692
EURUSD showed a minor pullback after a massive sell-off. The pair declined after weak German GDP data. Recession in Germany pulling the euro further down. It hits a fresh nine-week low of 1.07071 and is currently trading around 1.07373.
US Q1 GDP 2023 (second reading) came at 1.3% compared to a forecast of 1.1%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits increased by 4000 in the week ending May 20, below the estimate of 249K.
Major economic data for the day
May 26th, 2023, US Core PCE index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Core Durable goods orders m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Revised UoM consumer sentiment (2 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to 37.8% from 35.6% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield jumped more than 2% yesterday on our debt deal optimism. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -71% from -108%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0700 confirms intraday bearishness; a dip to 1.0660/1.0600 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0760. The breach above targets 1.0800/1.0865/1.0900.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Bearish
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.07600 with SL around 1.0800 for a TP of 1.0660.
