FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.12298

 Kijun-Sen- 1.12284

EURUSD jumped slightly above 1.1250 after consolidation. ECB policymaker Boštjan Vasle's hawkish commentary also supports Euro at lower levels. It hits a high of  1.12756 and is currently trading around 1.12487.

The US Empire State manufacturing index improved to 1.1 in July, compared to -3.5 the previous month.

Major economic data for the day

Jul 18th, 2023, Core Retail sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 97.30% from 93% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield declined more than 8% in hopes of a rate pause by the Fed. The  US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -92.40% from -110%.

The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break above 1.1280 confirms intraday bullishness; a jump to 1.1325/1.1380  is possible. The near-term support is around 1.1220. The breach below targets 1.1180/1.1130/1.1070.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Bullish

  Directional movement index – Bullish

It is good to buy on dips around 1.1180 with SL around 1.1130 for a TP of 1.1300.