FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.06920

 Kijun-Sen- 1.06999

EURUSD lost its shine despite a rate hike by the ECB. It hit a low of 1.06318 at the time of writing and currently trading around 1.06649.

The European Central Bank hiked rates by 25 bpbs to a record high of 4%. It has signaled an end to its rate hike cycle.

US retail sales rose 0.60% in Aug mainly due to a surge in gas prices. Core retail sales came at 0.60% in August, above the forecast of 0.40%. US wholesale inflation +1.6% y/y vs. +1.2% expected.

Major economic data for the day

Sep 15, 2023, US Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

                          Prelim UoM consumer sentiment  

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 97% from 92% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield pared some of its despite strong US CPI. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -73% from -57%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  below  55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any break below 1.0630 confirms further bearishness. A decline to 1.0600/1.0500  is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.07050, any breach above targets is 1.07600/1.0800/1.0880.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Bearish

  Directional movement index – Bearish

It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0708-10 with SL around 1.0765 for a TP of 1.0600.