Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.05269
Kijun-Sen- 1.05675
EURUSD pared some of its gains on risk aversion. It hit a low of 1.04953 and is currently trading around 1.05352.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment declined to 63 In Oct vs. a Forecast of 67.40.
Major economic data for the day
Oct 16th, 2023, US Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)
FOMC Member Harker Speaks (2:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 92.90% from 72.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback on geopolitical tension. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -41% from -75%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below 1.04800 confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.0440/1.0380/1.0325 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0550, and any breach above targets 1.06000/1.0660. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Neutral
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell below 1.04800 with SL around 1.05300 for a TP of 1.03500.
