FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.05318

 Kijun-Sen- 1.05675

EURUSD pared some of its gains ahead of German ZEW sentiment. It hit a low of 1.0454 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.05468.

The US Empire State manufacturing index declines to -4.6, compared to a forecast of -7.

Major economic data for the day

Oct 17, 2023, Retail sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)       

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 95.3% from 88% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback on geopolitical tension. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -38% from -75%.

The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any break below 1.04800  confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.0440/1.0380/1.0325 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.05650, and any breach above targets 1.06000/1.0660. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – Neutral

  Directional movement index – Neutral

It is good to sell below 1.04800 with SL around 1.05300 for a TP of 1.03500.