FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.05638

 Kijun-Sen- 1.05675

EURUSD jumped slightly despite upbeat US retail sales data. It hit a high of 1.05942 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.05861.

US retail sales surged sharply in Sep to 0.70%, above the estimate of 0.30%. Core retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, and building materials rose 0.60% vs. a Forecast of 0.20%.

Major economic data for the day

Oct 18, 2023, US Building permits (12:30 pm GMT)       

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 90.10% from 88% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback on upbeat US retail sales. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -36% from -75%.

The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any break below 1.04800  confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.0440/1.0380/1.0325 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0660, and any breach above targets 1.0700/1.07650/1.0800. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – bullish

  Directional movement index – Neutral

It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0618-20 with SL around 1.0660 for a TP of 1.04800