FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

 Tenken-Sen- 1.05586

 Kijun-Sen- 1.05451

EURUSD pared most of its gains on board-based US dollar buying. It hit a low of 1.05230 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.05362.

US September Building permits declined 4.4% to 1473000 and housing starts rose 7% every month in September.

Major economic data for the day

Oct 19th, 2023, Fed Powell speech (4:00 pm GMT)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index    (12:30 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 93.90% from 90.9% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield surged past 4.90% for, first time since July 2007 on rate hike fears. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -28.2% from -75%.

The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA,  55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any break below 1.04800  confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.0440/1.0380/1.0325 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0660, and any breach above targets 1.0700/1.07650/1.0800. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.

   Indicator (4-hour chart)

   CCI – bearish

  Directional movement index – Neutral

It is good to sell below 1.04800 with SL around 1.05300 for a TP of 1.03500.