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Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.05586
Kijun-Sen- 1.05451
EURUSD pared most of its gains on board-based US dollar buying. It hit a low of 1.05230 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.05362.
US September Building permits declined 4.4% to 1473000 and housing starts rose 7% every month in September.
Major economic data for the day
Oct 19th, 2023, Fed Powell speech (4:00 pm GMT)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 93.90% from 90.9% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield surged past 4.90% for, first time since July 2007 on rate hike fears. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -28.2% from -75%.
The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and below long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below 1.04800 confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.0440/1.0380/1.0325 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0660, and any breach above targets 1.0700/1.07650/1.0800. Bullish invalidation only if it breaks below 1.0440.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – bearish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell below 1.04800 with SL around 1.05300 for a TP of 1.03500.
