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EUR/USD is consolidating in a narrow range after more than 250 pips decline. It hits a intraday high of 1.14216 and currently trading around 1.13842.
In April 2025, the ECB lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its sixth consecutive cut since June 2024, and lowered the 2025 Eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% on softer US tariff risks and subdued inflation. This aggressive loosening is the opposite of the Fed's prudence, widening the USD-EUR yield difference and fueling expectations for further ECB cuts in 2025. U.S. tariffs would halve Eurozone growth, and while core inflation remains near 2%, falling energy prices and sluggish demand limit the upside. Consequently, the trade-weighted euro index has declined approximately 3% since March 2025, with EUR/USD lingering at 1.10–1.14, bogged down by dollar strength and ECB dovishness.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
The pair is holding above short and long-term moving averages in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1425; a break above this may push the pair to targets of 1.1450/1.1500/ 1.1570/1.1600. Major bullish momentum is likely only if prices can break above the 1.160 target of 1.1660. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1300 any violation below will drag the pair to 1.1270/1.1240/1.1150/1.11000/1.10840/1.1000.
Market Indicators and Trading Strategy
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)- Bearish
Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Neutral
It is good to buy on dips around 1.1300 with a stop-loss at 1.1245 for a target price of 1.160.
