2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Indonesia Central Bank to Draft New Regulations After Expanded Economic Growth Mandate 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
RBA Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 4.35% as Markets Watch AUD/USD and ASX 200 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
RBI Hits Pause as Geopolitical Storm Clouds Gather 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Indian Government Bonds Seen Opening Steady Ahead of RBI Policy Decision 
South Korea Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns 
RBNZ Holds Interest Rates Steady but Signals More Hikes Ahead in 2026 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
BOJ Rate Hike Expected to Boost Yen, Impact USD/JPY and Nikkei 
BoE Policymaker Alan Taylor Signals No Need for Interest Rate Hike Amid Iran War Inflation Risks 
 forwards - EconoTimes)
We maintain a neutral forecast for EURUSD over the coming quarter, and indeed continue to recommend tactical short option trades in EURUSD for the next month or two on the basis of some fundamental driving forces:
The rationale:
1) Poor European growth is likely to matter slightly more than a now-diffident Fed, and
2) The Fed may be on hold but the absolute level of USD interest rates remains supportive of short term capital flows to USD.
Furthermore, we continue to indicate a mildly constructive forecast for the euro based on the key assumption that growth rebounds above 1.5%. This together with a still robust underlying balance of payments position should allow cautious mean-reversion higher in a is a modestly undervalued EUR (the EUR REER is 4.5% cheap to a 20Y average whereas the dollar is 3.5% expensive).
For shorter-term horizons (up to 3 months), we recommend hedging USD-denominated expenses via FX forwards, as we see a risk of more USD strength. For longer-term maturities (over 3 months), consider incorporating optionality, which enables one to gain from a EURUSD increase; this could be done by means of knock-in forwards, which allow one to sell EURUSD above the current spot should USD weaken over time (as per our call), while still securing a worst-case rate.
Alternatively, on hedging grounds ahead of Fed’s monetary policy that is scheduled for this week who is most likely to maintain status quo in its monetary policy, we advocate shorting futures contracts of mid-month tenors as the underlying spot FX likely to target southwards 1.1175 levels in the medium term.
Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position. Courtesy: JPM & Danske
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is flashing at 70 levels (which is bullish), while hourly USD spot index was at -96 (bearish) while articulating at (08:24 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
