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2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
The US dollar index pared some of its gains despite US retail sales. It rose 0.60% m/m in Dec, compared to a forecast of 0.40%. Core retail sales ex-auto jumped 0.40% vs.0.20. It hit a low of 103.20 and is currently trading around 103.26.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan increased to 97.40% from 95.80% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield 'gained more than 5% on strong retail sales data. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -24.30% from -17%.
Major resistance- 103.75/105
Major support- 102/101.60.
EURUSD-
EURUSD recovered more than 50 pips on hawkish comments from ECB officials. ECB President Lagarde hints at rate cut this summer at Davos speech. Eurozone final CPI came at 2.90% in line with the estimate of 2.90%.
Major resistance-1.090,1.0965
Major support- 1.0860,1.0800
Yen-
The pair trades higher on surging US treasury yield. Any close above 148.60 confirms further bullishness.
Major Resistance- 148.60,150
Major support- 147.70,146.40
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar showed a minor pullback on strong crude oil prices.
Resistance- 1.3570,1.3645
Major support- 1.3480, 1.3435
Economic calendar
US building permits and Philly fed manufacturing (1:30 pm GMT)
