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Due to soft US housing data, the US dollar index continues to trade weak. New home sales rose 1.5% m/m in Jan to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661000 compared to a forecast of 680000. It hit a low of 103.71 yesterday and is currently trading around 103.792.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 99.50% from 90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yields showed a major pullback ahead of US durable goods orders. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -41.9% from -53%.
Major resistance- 104.25/105
Major support- 103/102.
Economic data for the day
US durable goods order (1:30 pm GMT)
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (2 pm GMT)
CB Consumer Confidence (3 pm GMT)
Richmond Manufacturing Index
EURUSD-
EURUSD gained momentum and jumped above 1.08500 on board-based US dollar weakness. ECB president Lagarde said that the recent Eurozone fourth quarter wage growth numbers are encouraging and the central bank requires further data for confirmation that inflation won't rise again.
Major resistance-1.0880,1.0935
Major support- 1.0760,1.0700
Yen-
The pair pares some of its gains after upbeat Japan inflation data. Japan's consumer inflation rose to 2% in Jan vs. Estimate of 1.9%. Any break below 149.50 confirms minor weakness.
Major Resistance- 151,152
Major support- 148,146.50
Canadian Dollar
The pair declined slightly on strong crude oil prices—markets eye Canada's GDP data (Feb 29th, 2024 1:30 pm GMT) for further movement.
Resistance- 1.3550,1.3600
Major support- 1.3435,1.3380
