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The US dollar index was trading higher for the second consecutive week. It hit a high of 104.49 the previous week and is currently trading around 104.385.
Central bank policy decisions last week-
Fed kept its rates unchanged as expected and the dot plot shows three rate cuts this year (total 75 bpbs). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprises markets with a 25 bpbs rate cut to 1.50% due to easing inflation.
BOE holds rates steady at 5.25% and hints at further rate cuts as inflation eases sharply.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined by 2000 to 21000 for the week ended Mar 16th compared to a forecast of 215000. Manufacturing activity in Philadelphia slipped to 3.2 in Mar from 5.2 the previous month. US Flash manufacturing came in above expectations, while services PMI declined to 51.7 vs. the Forecast of 52.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in June % increased to 67.2% from 55.2% a week ago.
The US 10-year yields declined more than 3.50% from a temporary top on the dovish Fed rate pause. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -39% from -53%.
Major resistance- 104.25/105
Major support- 103.40/102.70
US economic calendar -
Mar 25th, 2024, New home sales (2;00 pm GMT)
Mar 26th, 2024, Core Durable goods order (12:30 pm GMT)
CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)
Richmond Manufacturing Index
Mar 27th, 2024, FOMC member Waller speaks (10:00 pm GMT)
Mar 28th, 2024, US final GDP and unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)
Chicago PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
Pending home sales (2:00 pm GMT)
EURUSD-
EURUSD showed a minor pullback after upbeat German data. The German IFO business climate surged to 87.80 in Mar, up from 85.7 points. German Mar flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 41.60, compared to a forecast of 43.10. While flash services PMI recovered to 49.80 from 48.30 the previous month.
Major resistance-1.0880,1.0950
Major support- 1.0800,1.0760
Yen-
The pair gained momentum despite the hawkish BOJ Jan minutes. Any break above 152 confirms minor bullishness.
Major Resistance- 152,153
Major support- 150,149
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar pared some of its gains after dismal retail sales.
Resistance- 1.3620,1.3660
Major support- 1.3550,1.3480
