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US dollar Index-
The US dollar index lost its shine after weak inflation data. It hit a low of 104.27 yesterday and is currently trading around 104.79.
US Core CPI came at 0.20% in May below estimate of 0.30%.The annual core CPI rose 3.4% below the analyst estimate 3.5%. Over the last 12 months, CPI increased 3.3% below forecast of 3.4%.
Fed left interest r ates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected. Fed dot plot shows that the central bank will cut rstes by 25 bpbs in 2024 and another 100 bpbs in 2025. In the new dot plot, 4 saw no rate cut in 2024, 7 saw one rate cut and 8 saw two rate cuts.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep increased to 56.70% from 46.80% a day ago.
Major resistance- 105.50/107
Major support- 103.80/103
EURUSD-
EURUSD pared some of its gains after hawkish rate pause by Fed. It hit a low of 1.08522 and is currently trading around 1.08042.
The politcial uncertainity in France due to early election called by French President Macron.
German CPI came at 0.10% in May, in line with estimate.
Major resistance-1.0860,1.0935
Major support- 1.0750,1.0660
Yen-
The yen lost its shine on polviy divergence between US Fed and BOJ. Any break above 158 confirms further bullishness.
Major Resistance- 158,160
Major support- 156,154.50
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar pared its gains after hawkish tilt by Fed.Any break above 1.3800 confirms further bullishness.
Resistance- 1.3800, 1.3900
Major support- 1.3700,1.3600
