• GBP/AUD edged lower on Thursday as the Australian dollar strengthened after a robust jump in private capital spending in Q3.
• According to data released on Thursday, Australian private capital expenditure soared 6.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, up from a revised 0.4% in the prior quarter and easily beating the 0.5% market forecast.
• Momentum for the Aussie has also been underpinned by Wednesday’s elevated inflation data, which markets now see as effectively bookending the easing cycle of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
• Looking ahead, the next major domestic catalyst will be Australia’s Q3 GDP release due on December 3, followed by the October trade balance data on December 4.
• Both releases will be closely watched for confirmation that economic momentum remains strong enough to justify the market’s increasingly hawkish reassessment of the RBA outlook.
• Immediate resistance is located at 2.0389(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 2.0429 (50%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 2.0232 (38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 2.0208 (5DMA).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 2.0280 with stop loss of 2.0350 and target price of 2.0200
