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• GBP/AUD eased on Wednesday as higher commodity prices and mounting expectations of RBA rate hikes lifted the Australian dollar.
•Gains in commodities continue to lift the Australian dollar, with both precious and industrial metals seeing robust demand, reinforcing AUD strength.
• RBA minutes signaled the board is paving the way for a rate hike if inflation does not ease, putting focus on the Jan 28 Q4 CPI data
• The RBA holds its first meeting of the year on February 3 and markets imply a 28% chance of a quarter-point increase in the 3.6% cash rate
• Markets are already factoring in a rate hike, assigning roughly a 25% chance to February. By July, a 0.25% increase is fully priced, with 44 basis points of tightening expected in 2026.
• Immediate resistance is located at 2.0162(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 2.0293(SMA20).
• Immediate support is seen at 2.0005(23.6%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.9958 (Lower BB)
Recommendation: Good to sell around 2.0170 with stop loss of 2.0220 and target price of 2.120
