• GBP/AUD remained confined to a narrow range on Thursday as investors paused after a recent relief-driven rally sparked by the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
• The de-escalation in geopolitical tensions had previously lifted risk appetite, but market participants are now shifting focus to upcoming macroeconomic data and central bank policy cues, keeping price action subdued in the short term.
• Market participants are also focused on trade talks linked to the U.S.'s July 9 tariff deadline and economic signals from both the UK and Australia, which could influence monetary policy expectations..
• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Tuesday that signs of a weakening labour market are becoming clearer and reaffirmed his expectation that interest rates are likely to continue falling in the coming months.
• Money markets currently price in an 64% probability of a Bank of England rate cut in August, reflecting growing expectations of policy easing amid signs of a cooling UK economy.
• Technical signals are bullish as RSI is at 58, daily momentum studies 5,9 and 10 DMAs are trending up.
• Immediate resistance is located at 2.1054(Higher BB), any close above will push the pair towards 2.11143(38.2% fib).
• Strong support is seen at 2.0865(50% fib)and break below could take the pair towards 2.0758 (June 23rd low)
Recommendation: Good to buy around 2.0970 , with stop loss of 2.0900 and target price of 2.1100
