FxWirePro: Global analysts continue to predict next financial crisis trigger without a clue

Since the Great Recession of 2008/09, while analysts including prominent economist like Nouriel Rubini have continued to predict doomsday and triggers that would send the world and the financial market to a similar (2008/09) brink of collapse, the stock market has continued to edge higher. Since the bottom of 2009, the financial market has increased 280 percent and this year alone, it is up almost 14 percent. The U.S. stock market is up for a ninth consecutive year, while analysts have kept on guessing the trigger that might bring the next collapse. Here is a list of potential triggers that have shown promise but has so far failed to trigger any major crisis,

• U.S. debt limit and budget crisis: Back in 2011/12, analysts were predicting doomsday citing United States’ ever-increasing debt and internal politics with regard to the debt limit. But that didn’t happen and in 2017, it’s not on the list anymore.
   
• China’s massive debt and economic slowdown: Since 2013, many analysts including us at FxWirePro have focused on China’s massive corporate debt and predicted a major financial crisis as it blows up. Despite showing some early promise, it has also failed to trigger any meaningful crisis. Though, it is still on the doomsday list, but with less immediate focus.
   
• Strong dollar: It was believed by many that a strong dollar would lead to a crisis in emerging markets and will lead to massive global market turmoil. While strong dollar triggered panic in the emerging market in 2013, it failed to make dent globally.
   
• Fed Tapering: The U.S. Federal Reserve has officially begun reducing its balance sheet and has already increased the interest rate by 100 basis points. However, despite being on the list, it has so far failed to make any dent in the market or in the economy.
   
• Global Tapering: This has not officially begun but analysts are predicting that as central banks like ECB, BoJ, SNB, BoE, Fed, and other European emerging markets’ central bankers close their easing tap, it would trigger the next major crisis.
   
• Geopolitics and North Korea: Many analysts are predicting that ongoing geopolitical crisis between the United States and North Korea would be the trigger. Only time will tell, meantime the market continues to move higher.
   
• Brexit and European populism: It is believed by many that social upheaval that resulted in Brexit would further disintegrate the European Union, Eurozone and trigger the next crisis. So far, it has resulted in temporary setbacks only.

It seems that almost everyone is sure of a next major crisis but clueless about the trigger.

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