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Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2003.52
Kijun-Sen- $2013.42
Gold prices lost more than $30 yesterday despite weak retail sales. US President Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are hopeful of a deal this week. It hits a low of f $1985.57 and is currently trading around $1992.11.
US retail sales rose 0.40% in Apr, compared to a forecast of 0.80%. Core retail sales excluding autos and gasoline increased by 0.60%.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102.30/101.50. The near-term resistance is 102.80/103.40.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in June increased to 83.2% from 78.8% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield jumped slightly after US retail sales data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -54% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1985, a break below targets of $1970/$1955/$1935.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2020, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $1970 with SL around $1950 for TP of $2070/$2100.
