Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1912.79
Kijun-Sen- $1923.19
Gold lost its shine after mixed US economic data. It hit a low of $1899.18 and is currently trading at around $1900.57.
US Richmond manufacturing index for Sep came at 5 vs. -7 last month. The conference board's consumer confidence declined to 103 in Sep, compared to a forecast of 105.50. Sales of new single-family houses tumbled 8.7% in August to 675K vs. 700k expected.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 104.40/103.79. The near-term resistance is 106/107.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 85.6% from 70.1% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield holds above 4.50% in hopes of another 25 bpbs rate hike by the Fed. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -54% from -75%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1890, a break below targets of $1880/$1870/$1850. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1920 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1930/$1950/$1970.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1909-10 with SL around $1920 for TP of $1850.
