Ichimoku Analysis (4 Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2412
Kijun-Sen- $2392.50
Gold surged sharply and hit an all-time high on board-based US dollar selling. It hit a high of $2450 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2440.
The easing US CPI and weak US retail sales last week have increased the chance of a rate cut by the Fed this year.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback following three weeks of bearish trend. Comments from Fed members confirmed that there would not be any rate cut in the mid-term until inflation cools below the Fed target range of 2%.
US economic data
Major economic data for the week
May 20th, 2024, US Flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
May 24th 2024, Durable goods orders m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June decreased to 91.1% from 96.5% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 104/103. The near-term resistance is 105/106.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2430, a break below the targets of $2413/$2400/$2365. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2450 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2475/$2500.
It is good to buy on dips around $2362-63 with SL around $2340 for a TP of $2500.
