Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1693.93
Kijun-Sen- $1747.06
Gold surged more than $100 the previous week and showed a minor profit booking. The US dollar lost its shine after weak US CPI data. It rose 7.7% in Oct, down from the previous month's 8.2%, below the estimate of 8%. It was one of the worst performers in the past seven days and lost more than 500 pips as the chance of aggressive rate hikes diminishes. A dip to 105.70 is possible.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 7000 to 225000 in the week ended Nov 5th compared to a forecast of 22000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Dec increased to 85.4% from 48% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield lost more than 10% after hitting a high of 4.244%. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -49 basis points from -67 bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index – Bearish (Positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1740, a break below targets of $1720/$1700/$1680. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1760, the breach above will take it to the next level of $1800.Minor bullish continuation only if it breaks $1760.
It is good to buy on dips around $1730 with SL around $1718 for TP of $1800.
