FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
 
Tenken-Sen- $1767.35

Kijun-Sen- $1742.43
 
Gold recovered sharply and hits its highest level since May 2022 on the weak US dollar. The US dollar index lost its shine after mixed US jobs data. The US economy added 223000 jobs in Dec, lower than 256K (revised data for Dec). Unemployment declined to 3.5%, a per-pandemic low. Average hourly earnings m/m came at 0.30%, below the estimate of 0.40%. It hits an intraday high of $1879.54 and is currently trading around $1877.59.

Private sector employment rose by 235000 in Dec, above the estimate of 152K. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined to 204K in the week ending Dec 31st.

 US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 103.40/102. The near-term resistance is at 104.10/105/106.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb rose to 73.2% from 67.7% a week ago.

The US 10-year yield lost more than 5% after jobs data. Any break and close below 3.32% confirm the further bearish trend. The yield spread between 10 and 2-year narrowed to -69 basis points from -77 bpbs.
 
Factors to watch for gold price action-
 
 Global stock market- bullish (bearish for gold)
 
US dollar index – Bearish (positive for gold)
 
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Positive Negative for gold)

Technical:

 The near–term support is around $1865, a break below targets of $1850/$1840/$1825.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1880, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1909/$1920.

It is good to buy on dips around $1848 with SL around $1825 for TP of $1919.