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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1975.84
Kijun-Sen- $1906.79
Gold prices declined more than $30 on the strong US dollar. The US dollar index gained momentum despite weak inflation numbers. It hits a low of $2001 and is currently trading around $2014.32.
US CPI declined to 4.9% YoY compared to a forecast of 5%. On a monthly basis, CPI and Core CPI rose 0.40% in line with estimates. The US Producer price index came in at 0.20% in Apr compared to a forecast of 0.30%. Core PPI excluding food and energy costs up 0.20% month-on-month.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment befits rose by 22000 to 264000 last week, the highest level in 2-1/2 weeks.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102.30/101.50. The near-term resistance is 102.80/103.40.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to 16.6% from 15.5% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trading in a narrow range for the past week. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -53% from -108%.
Major economic data for the day
May 15th, 2023, US empire state manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)
May 16th, 2023, US retail sales (12:30 pm GMT)
May 18th, 2023, US unemployment benefits (12:30 pm GMT)
Existing Home Sales (2 pm GMT)
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2000, a break below targets of $1970/$1955/$1935.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2040, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $1970 with SL around $1950 for TP of $2070/$2100.
