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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2007.91
Kijun-Sen- $1906.79
Gold prices showed a minor pullback after the Fed chairman's Speech. He said that "our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals." It signals a time to pause rate hikes. It hits a high of $1984 and is currently trading around $1978.58.
Markets eye for US President Biden and McCarthy to meet at the White House on Monday.
US retail sales rose 0.40% in Apr, compared to a forecast of 0.80%. Core retail sales excluding autos and gasoline increased by 0.60%. The people who have filed for unemployment benefits by 22000 to 242000 in the week ended May 13th, below the forecast of 253K. US Philly Fed manufacturing index improves to -10.40 vs -19.80 expected.
Major economic data for the day
May 23rd, 2023, US Flash manufacturing and services PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
New home sales (2:00 pm GMT)
May 24th, 2023, FOMC Meeting minutes (6 pm GMT)
May 25th 2023, US Prelim GDP Q/Q (12:30pm GMT)
US unemployment claims
Pending home sales (2 pm GMT)
May 26th, 2023, US Core PCE index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Core Durable goods order m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102.30/101.50. The near-term resistance is 103/103.60.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in June increased to 86.2% from 84.50% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield halted its six days of bullish trend ahead of US debt negotiations. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -58.70% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1950, a break below targets of $1935/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1970, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $1960 with SL around $1950 for TP of $2070/$2100.
