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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1987.26
Kijun-Sen- $1943.11
Gold prices showed a minor pullback after weak US PCE data. Headline US PCE index rose 0.10% m/m, below expectations of 0.50%. Core PCE came at 0.30% m/m, in line with market expectations. It hits a high of $1922 yesterday and currently trading around $1917.
US durable goods orders surged 1.7% m/m, above the forecast of -1% (Positive). US Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 109.70 in June from 102.50 in May (Positive). Sales of new US single-family homes increased to 763000 in May, the highest level in 1-1/2 years (Positive).
The US economy has expanded at an annualized pace of 2.1% in the first quarter, above the estimate of 1.40% (Positive). The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits dropped to 239000 for the week ended June 25, the biggest drop since Oct 2021 (Positive).
Major economic data for the day
Jul 3rd, 2023,US ISM manufacturing PMI (2:00 pm GMT)
Jul 5th, 2023, FOMC Meeting Minutes (6:00 pm GMT)
Jul 6th, 2023, US ADP employment (12:15 pm GMT)
US ISM services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)
Jul 7th 2023, US Non-Farm-Payroll (12:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- weak. Minor support around 101.80/101. The near-term resistance is 103.60/104.40.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 87.40% from 71.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains on weak US PCE. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -107.50% from -94.8%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - mixed (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1890, a break below targets of $1878/$1868/$1850.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1925, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1936/$1942/$1950/$1955.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1928-30 with SL around $1950 for TP of $1878.
