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Gold is trading lower for 3rd consecutive day and declined more than $10.Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: bearish. DXY has shown a minor recovery. The index is facing strong support around 96.62 (200- day MA) and any break below confirms further weakness. (positive for gold).
USD/JPY: strong. USD/JPY has regained more than 50 pips from low of 110.35.It is currently trading around 110.85. The near term resistance is around 111.40 and any break above targets 112. negative for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield has recovered more than 2.5% from its low of 2.625%.The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.654%.slightly negative for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.49%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 17bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing near term resistance around $1326 and break above will take the gold to next level till $1334/$1346/$1350.The yellow metal should break above $1365 for further bullishness.
The near term support is around $1316 (trend line support) and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1311 (23.6% fib)/$1300. Any break below $1300 confirms minor weakness.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1325-26 with SL around $1332 for the TP of $1300.
