- NZD/JPY is trading in a 'Rising Wedge' pattern, intraday bias bearish.
- The kiwi dented by poor data and inconclusive election results which culminated in a hung parliament.
- New Zealand trade balance for August came in at $-3.2B, below forecasts at $-2.91B.
- NZ business confidence stood at 0.0 pct in September vs 18.3 pct in previous survey, while own activity outlook fell to 29.6 pct vs 38.2 pct prior.
- NZD/JPY down 0.41% on the day, trading at 80.82 at the time of writing.
- The pair finds strong support at 50-DMA at 80.68, we see weakness on break below.
- Technical studies are bearish. Stochs have rolled over from overbought levels and RSI is biased lower.
- We see scope for test of 20-DMA at 80.05 on break below 50-DMA, violation at 20-DMA could see drag till 78.55 (wedge base).
- On the flipside, bearish invalidation only on break above 5-DMA at 81.75.
Support levels - 80.67 (50-DMA), 80.37 (38.2% Fib retrace of 83.91 to 78.18 fall), 80.05 (20-DMA), 79.23 (Sept 15 low)
Resistance levels - 81.75 (nearly converged 5-DMA and 61.8% Fib), 82.75 (Sept 21 high), 84 (wedge top)
Recommendation: Good to go short on break below 50-DMA at 80.67, SL: 81.75, TP: 80/ 79.55/ 79.25/ 79
FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly NZD Spot Index was at -56.8584 (Neutral), while Hourly JPY Spot Index was at 105.516 (Bullish) at 0530 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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