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• NZD/USD declined sharply on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar.
• Over the weekend, U.S. forces conducted precision strikes on three of Iran’s major nuclear facilities, marking a sharp escalation in regional tensions.
• The developments triggered widespread concern across global markets, fueling volatility and strengthening the dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand dollar.
• New Zealand will release trade data on Wednesday, following Q1 GDP that beat expectations and strengthened views that the RBNZ may be nearing the end of its easing cycle.
• Markets assign a low probability to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting its benchmark rate of 3.25% in July, but the odds of a rate cut in August have risen to over 60%.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5986(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
• Support is seen at 0.5912(50%fib)and break below could take the pair towards 0.5841(61.8%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.5930 with stop loss of 0.5980 and target price of 0.5830
