• NZD/USD rose on Monday as greenback weakened U.S. data reduced expectations for further Fed tightening.
•U.S. July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% month-on-month, versus forecasts for a 0.1% rise, marking the first decline in nine months and weighing on the dollar.
•New Zealand July electronic card retail sales rose 1.3% month-on-month after falling 1.4% previously, while annual growth accelerated to 3.4%.
•Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as Trump escalates rhetoric toward Iran, while Tehran remains defiant and prospects for a peace deal remain limited.
•U.S. July import prices and industrial production, with industrial production forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, are due Tuesday.
•Markets are pricing an 86.2% probability of a 25-basis-point RBNZ rate hike on September 2. The RBNZ's next policy decision is scheduled for September 2.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5947(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5970(Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 0.5887(Daily low) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5852(50%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.5900 with stop loss of 0.58930 and target price of 0.5970
