• NZD/USD steadied on Monday as relatively hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand expectation offset weaker New Zealand retail sales data .
• New Zealand’s retail sales volumes fell 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025, official data showed, missing economists’ expectations for a 0.1% increase.
•The latest decline came after first-quarter retail sales were revised to show a 0.4% contraction, pointing to continued pressure on household spending.
• Meanwhile, renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is weighing on confidence in the dollar. The breakdown in U.S.-Canada trade discussions has brought tariff and trade-policy concerns back into focus .
•Geopolitical risks remain a major source of uncertainty. Tensions involving Iran and the threat of tougher U.S. sanctions continue to keep markets cautious.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5990(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6004 (Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 0.5941 (Dailylow) and break below could take the pair towards 0.59071(38.2%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.5760 with stop loss of 0.5680 and target price of 0.5860
