FxWirePro: NZD/USD hovers around 200-DMA, focus on New Zealand GDP, US inflation for impetus

Chart - Courtesy Trading View 

Spot Analysis:

NZD/USD was trading 0.67% higher on the day at 0.6172 at around 10:10 GMT.

Previous Week's High/ Low: 0.6225/ 0.6084

Previous Session's High/ Low: 0.6176/ 0.6091

Fundamental Overview:

Kiwi bulls ignore downbeat NZIER report where the think-tank anticipates much weakness growth in 2024.

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show an upward revision to the near-term growth outlook but a downward revision for the subsequent two years.

NZIER adds that annual average GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.3 percent for the year to March 2024 before picking up to 1 percent in the following year. 

SVB collapse led investors to speculate that the Fed would now hesitate to hike interest rates by a super-sized 50 basis points this month. 

The U.S. government announced several measures early on Monday so as to make additional funding available through a new Bank Term Funding Program. 

Data released on Friday showed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) grew more than 205K expected to 311K in February, versus 504K (revised).

The Unemployment Rate rose to 3.6% for the said month compared to 3.4% expected and prior. Further, the Average Hourly Earnings rose on YoY but eased on monthly basis.

Investor focus will now be on Tuesday's US inflation data to gauge how hawkish the Fed is likely to be. Thursday’s New Zealand fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will also be crucial for direction.

Technical Analysis:

- NZD/USD is extending gains for the second straight session, edges above 200-DMA

- RSI is biased higher, but stays below 50 mark

- MACD is on verge of bullish crossover on signal line and Chikou span is biased higher

- Price action is struggling to hold break above 200H MA

Major Support and Resistance Levels:

Support - 0.6121 (5-DMA), Resistance - 0.6201 (20-DMA)

Summary: NZD/USD pivotal at 200-DMA, decisive break above required for further upside.