• NZD/USD edged lower on Thursday as New Zealand’s weak labor market data reinforced expectations of monetary easing later this month.
• New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in Q3, the highest since 2016, as employment levels remained largely unchanged, according to Statistics New Zealand data released Wednesday.
•RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby highlighted that the highest unemployment rate since 2016 was “within expectations,” signaling that the central bank sees the labor market conditions as largely in line with projections.
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• Ongoing weakness in New Zealand’s labor market, combined with muted wage growth, is expected to reinforce the case for a cash rate cut at the RBNZ’s November meeting.
• Markets are now fully pricing in a 25bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its November 26 meeting, with roughly equal chances of an additional cut in 2026.
•Investors are now focusing on upcoming New Zealand data, with October electronic card retail sales due next week. Previous readings showed a -0.5% month-on-month decline but a +1.0% year-on-year gain
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.5708(Nov 4th high), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5733(38.2%fib).
• Support is seen at 0.5646(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5600 (Psychological level).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5670, with stop loss of 0.5750 and target price of 0.5600
