FxWirePro: NZD/USD recovers slightly but downtrend likely to resume

• NZD/USD   gained modestly on Friday  as rising oil prices  and  US–Iran peace uncertainty kept investors cautious.

• Reports that Donald Trump may send more troops heightened fears of the war escalating into a ground conflict.

•Oil prices dipped in early trade after Trump said talks with Iran to end the war were going "very well", but hovered around $107 per barrel. 

•New Zealand   heavy reliance on imported energy makes its economy vulnerable to global oil price shocks

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has warned the small, open economy is very exposed to an energy shock which is certain to drive inflation higher even as it saps consumer spending power.

•Markets imply a 50% chance of a hike in the 2.25% cash rate by May, and are almost fully priced for 2.5% by July.

•  Immediate resistance is located at 0.5834(50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.5864(SMA 20).

•Support is seen at 0.5716(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.5685(Lower BB).

 Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.5780 with stop loss of 0.5870  and target price of 0.5720