• NZD/USD edged lower on Friday as investor caution grew ahead of a high-stakes week dominated by U.S. trade policy and global central bank decisions.
•Investor attention is now squarely on key central bank meetings next week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan set to announce their latest policy decisions.
• These meetings come at a critical juncture, just ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s August 1 deadline for finalizing trade deals — a looming event that could reshape global risk sentiment.
• Markets will be watching closely for any signs of divergence in policy direction. The Fed’s stance on interest rates, in particular, will be pivotal for global asset flows, while the BOJ’s guidance on yield curve control could influence sentiment.
• Meanwhile,Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 75% probability that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut its 3.25% official cash rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on August 20.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6062(Daily high), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6119 (23.6%fib).
• Support is seen at 0.6016(38.2%fib)and break below could take the pair towards 0.5933(50%fib).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.6010 with stop loss of 0.5960 and target price of 0.6100
