FxWirePro: NZD/USD stalls 4-day rebound, slips below 0.70 handle, China data dump fails to impress Kiwi bulls

• Chinese macro releases left the NZD bulls unimpressed, sentiment around the kiwi dented post NZ Treasury’s half-year economic & fiscal report.
  
• New Zealand's coalition government revised down its economic and fiscal forecasts in its half-yearly update.
  
• Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the government expects to post a slightly lower-than-forecast budget surplus in 2018.
  
• The Treasury cut its forecast economic growth to 3.3 percent in the year to June 2018 and 3.4 percent the following year, compared to the predicted 3.5 percent growth for each year in the August forecast.
  
• Focus now shifts towards the US retail sales and import prices data for fresh near-term trading opportunities.
  
• Technical studies support upside in the pair, bullish divergence on RSI and Stochs adds to upside bias.
  
• Price action has broken into daily cloud and has taken out 50-DMA resistance at 0.6938.
  
• Bulls now target 0.71 levels (converged 100 and 200 DMAs). Breakout there could see continuation of uptrend.
  
• Immediate support is seen at 0.6941 (5-DMA) and we see bullish invalidation only on break below 20-DMA at 0.6883.

Support levels - 0.6941 (5-DMA), 0.6936 (50-DMA), 0.6883 (20-DMA)

Resistance levels - 0.7052 (Apr 19th high), 0.7077 (38.2% Fib retrace of 0.7558 to 0.6780 fall), 0.7090 (Mar 21st high)

Recommendation: Good to go long on dips, SL: 0.6935, TP: 0.7050/ 0.7075/ 0.7090

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly NZD Spot Index was at 54.6235 (Neutral), while Hourly USD Spot Index was at -93.9214 (Bearish) at 0600 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.

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