FxWirePro: Never buck NZD/USD downtrend; position with synthetic put
Since the current account deficit widened to 3.6% of GDP in the year to March 2015, we expect Kiwi dollars to depreciate further from current levels in a short run.The fall in dairy export prices over the past year drove…
Since the current account deficit widened to 3.6% of GDP in the year to March 2015, we expect Kiwi dollars to depreciate further from current levels in a short run.
The fall in dairy export prices over the past year drove the increase in the deficit and will continue to do so over the course of this year.
Cheaper oil imports and strong growth in tourist spending helped to soften the blow but not suffice to cushion currency depreciation.
Synthetic short put is proportionately established while long underlying currency holdings are combined with short calls strikes with slightly above 0.6932 which are about to become Out-Of-The-Money sooner or later today.
Hence, the recommendation would be choosing +0.15% higher strikes from current levels and 7D expiry to short calls for equal proportion of underlying currency holdings.
This call would turn out to be deep OTM call and block the returns that we derived from premiums.
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