Indonesia Central Bank to Draft New Regulations After Expanded Economic Growth Mandate 
Taiwan Central Bank Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Through 2027 
BOJ June Rate Hike Likely as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Middle East Tensions 
Trump’s Iran Strategy: What Has Been Achieved After Three Months of Conflict? 
New Zealand Unemployment and Inflation Debate Intensifies Ahead of 2026 Election 
BOJ Signals More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Price Pressures 
SpaceX Stock Gets $175 Target as Analysts See Massive Growth Ahead 
J.P. Morgan Sees Major Upside for Prysmian as Optical Fiber Prices Surge 
ECB Keeps July Rate Options Open Amid Iran War Energy Price Risks 
South Korea Central Bank Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns 
We emphasize potential trading opportunities related to anomalies or dislocations in emerging market currencies.
TWD has been too strong versus rate differentials,
The TWD is more correlated to interest rate differentials than most EM currencies; the move lower in USDTWD in the past month has far exceeded levels consistent with rates.
Assuming the Fed hikes by year end (we expect a rate hike in December) or at the minimum the market continues to ascribe a decent probability to a near-term rate increase coupled with the likelihood that the CBC eases, rate differentials should move further in the USD’s favour.
Taiwan is also susceptible to renewed fears of China’s growth slowdown. While negative forward points provide positive carry in shorting the TWD.
Hence, we encourage longs in USDTWD on its attractive carry and China exposure sentiment toward EM currencies could be in the procedure of shifting and we prefer to focus on regional low yielders in expressing a bullish dollar view. The slew of hawkish commentary from Fed officials in recent weeks as put the possibility of a rate hike back in play for H2.
