FxWirePro: U.S. Natural gas inventory preview

Natural gas is currently trading at $2.79 per MMBtu.

Key factors at play in natural gas market –

• Natural gas once again tested the $3 area and heading lower as it once again failed to breach sellers.
• The United States and the European Union have agreed in principle in bringing U.S. LNG to Europe.
• China surpassed Japan as the biggest natural gas importer.
• Japan’s nuclear power generation is reviving again, which would curtail the LNG demand.
• Gas price remains high, globally, especially in Japan and in Europe. However, in the United States, we expect the natural gas price to decline further towards $2.55 area, largely due to the existing bottlenecks in global trade.
• Price in Europe is breaking into record highs and currently trading at 73 pence therm. Russia and the United States are set to fight for market share in Asia and in Europe. US preparing to become major natural gas exporter to the EU and Asia.
• Large Natural gas producers in the United States continue to expand production per rig. US exports are increasing significantly. United States remains the largest petroleum and natural gas producers in the world.
• U.S. production is rising fast. Currently U.S. is the third biggest exporter of natural gas.
• U.S. exit from Iran nuclear agreement complicates the future of vast natural gas reserves in Iran. Recently, French energy giant ‘Total’ exit lucrative Iran gas project amid sanctions.  
• NATO sanctions on Russia might disrupt its gas supplies to Europe.
• Russia is likely to dominate the Chinese gas market, fastest growing in the world.
• With natural gas turning into a buyers’ market, big importers like Japan are renegotiating long term contracts with a resale clause attached.

Now, for the inventory,

According to the latest numbers, working gas in the underground storage remains at 2.505 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Stocks are 646 Bcf less than last year at this time and 588 Bcf below the five-year average. The chart from EIA shows the level of inventory. The second chart from investing.com shows weekly changes in inventory.

• Last week, the inventory rose by 70 billion cubic feet against an expectation of 58 billion cubic feet increase. Today 60 billion cubic feet build expected.
• EIA will release the inventory report at 14:30 GMT.