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Since the beginning of this February, we’ve noticed considerable bullish consolidation in USDCAD rallies. But back-to-back shooting stars formation counters these rallies (refer daily chart), as a result, the current price still hovering at 7DMAs despite last Friday’s sharp rallies. While both leading oscillators (RSI and stochastic curves) signal overbought pressures.
With very little on the calendar today we may find the markets embrace a day of consolidation. The USD’s sharp reversal into Friday’s close, after setting new lows, is likely to see some follow-through.
We need further evidence at this stage to suggest this is the start of a significant turnaround into the end of Q1.
Yet, sharp rejections of new lows are typically the type of price action we would expect in a USD basing process.
On a broader perspective, 3-black crow pattern has occurred that is coupled with EMA crossover monthly plotting and overbought pressures signals extreme weakness. The current price on this timeframe slid & restrained below 7EMAs.
For now, the stiff resistance is seen at 1.2590 with momentum is bearish bias.
Well, there is no significant data out this week in the US, but we do get the minutes of January’s FOMC meeting, which will be scrutinized for new biases, as will Friday’s 2018 Monetary Policy report, ahead of new Fed Chair Powell’s testimony next week. The US also auctions $258bln of debt, a significant test for the market.
Trade tips: From a trading perspective, tunnel spreads are best suitable, so snap the rallies to deploy higher strikes in the binary puts while shorting lower strikes simultaneously. Use upper strikes at 1.2590 and lower strikes at 1.2524 levels.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index has shown -100 (which is bearish), while hourly CAD spot index was at -96 (bearish) while articulating at 10:05 GMT. For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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